First MRP of Burnham premiership shows Labour ahead

...but still short of a majority

Hello!

Welcome to the first edition of The Convergence, from Convergent Opinion. Every so often, we’ll share a piece of insight with you here based on our work in the UK and elsewhere. This will often be about politics, but may also cover other things we’ve found interesting.

Today, we’re covering the first MRP of the Burnham premiership, conducted by Convergent.

The Burnham bounce is here. Labour is up 7pts since mid-June and is in the lead once again.

We built the Labour Party’s 2024 campaign MRP model, which was more accurate than any public pollster’s. In our most recent MRP of 10,919 GB adults from 25–30 July, Labour is now on 26%, up from 19% in mid-June, while Reform is on 23%, down from 27%. The Conservatives are on 21%, Lib Dems on 11%, and Greens on 10%.

In our MRP, Labour is now ahead on seats, but short of a majority. Labour is projected to win 245 seats, ahead of Reform on 174, the Conservatives on 99, and the Liberal Democrats on 67. That would mean a hung parliament where a coalition would require at least three parties to form a majority Government.

The progressive bloc is starting to return

Labour’s bounce has primarily come from regaining progressive voters it lost to the Greens and Liberal Democrats in May. Just over half of 2024 Labour voters who voted Green and Lib Dem in the May elections now say they would vote Labour in a General Election. Similarly, the proportion of 2024 Labour voters in our MRP voting Green has fallen from 14% to 10% since mid-June and from 13% to 7% for the Liberal Democrats.

A key cause of this is that Burnham has shifted the perception among progressives that Labour is not left wing enough. Last December, 39% of 2024 Labour voters said Labour was too right wing or centrist (excluding don’t know), while under Andy Burnham this has fallen to just 15%.

But Labour is still struggling to win back those lost to Reform and the Conservatives. Losses to Reform among 2024 Labour voters have fallen slightly in our MRP, but only 13% of 2024 Labour voters who voted Reform in May have returned.

This is critical since most of Labour’s marginal seats are now against Reform, where switchers from Reform count twice. This means that the efficiency of Labour’s vote, which was historically high in 2024, has now fallen to levels close to 2010, which makes winning an outright majority more difficult.

The North is leading the recovery

Burnham’s drive to put the North at the centre of his agenda is winning over voters in the area. Labour has recovered most in the North of England, where Labour is projected to have regained 40 seats since June.

There are no signs of backlash in the South. It is Wales and Scotland where Labour is struggling to recover most. Labour has significantly increased its vote share across regions in England since mid-June. But it is only up a few points in Wales and Scotland, where it is only forecast to win a handful of additional seats since June. Burnham has focused on devolution in the regions of England, but he will need to rebuild Labour’s coalition across the nations of the UK too.

Burnham’s cost-of-living agenda is bringing voters back to Labour

There are signs that Burnham’s focus on cost-of-living is shifting voters back to Labour. Labour has recovered most among financially squeezed voters. Among those who say they ‘can afford the basics, but don’t have money for luxuries’, under Burnham Labour is up 19 points, to 63% of the vote. Among those who say they ‘struggle to afford the basics’, Labour is up 16 points on May, to 57% of the vote.

Using Convergent’s verbatim response coding tool, we can ask people to report in their own words what they’ve seen and heard about Burnham since he became Prime Minister, and group those responses into themes. £2 bus fares and VAT taken off energy bills are what voters have noticed most about his premiership so far (20% and 14% respectively).

However, most people (54%) cannot spontaneously recall seeing anything specific from Andy Burnham so far, and despite significant gains, financially insecure voters continue to remain Labour’s weakest group. With time that number will fall, and we’ll see if Burnham’s continued focus on the cost of living brings more of those voters round to Labour.

Can the Burnham bounce keep building?

Andy Burnham has started well. Within weeks of becoming Prime Minister he has put Labour back in front, and won back large numbers of voters who cast their ballots for a different party just two months ago. His focus on cost-of-living and the North of England is having the intended effect, with financially squeezed voters and those in the North returning to Labour.

But to win a majority Burnham has much further to go. He must demonstrate progress on cost-of-living, despite a tough economic outlook. He must face the strategic challenge of appealing to Reform voters while uniting progressives. And he must appeal to voters in Scotland and Wales, where voters just elected parties sceptical of the union. There is now a much clearer road to a second Labour majority, but it will not be easy.

Want best in class MRP for your next project? Convergent can MRP any question you run with us for as little as £600. Get in touch today, or take a look at how we might support your next project at convergent-opinion.com.

Methodology:

The July MRP estimates are based on an online survey of 10,919 adults aged 18 and over in Great Britain, conducted by Convergent Opinion between 25 and 30 July 2026. The unweighted sample included 954 respondents in Scotland.

The June 2026 estimates shown for comparison were based on a separate survey of 9,470 adults aged 18 and over in Great Britain, conducted between 9 and 13 June 2026. The unweighted sample included 667 respondents in Scotland. For the Scottish constituency estimates in the June MRP, the model also incorporated responses from a further 1,525 adults in Scotland interviewed between 8 and 17 May 2026.

Estimates for all 632 Westminster constituencies in Great Britain were produced using multilevel regression and poststratification, or MRP. Northern Ireland was not included in the model. The model estimates how different groups are likely to vote and turn out, then applies those estimates to the demographic and electoral profile of each constituency.

For modelling purposes, all parties included in the model were assumed to contest every constituency in Great Britain, except Plaid Cymru, which was modelled only in Wales, and the SNP, which was modelled only in Scotland.

The headline seat estimates are the average number of seats won by each party across the model’s simulations. Uncertainty is shown using 95% credible intervals. These intervals represent the uncertainty captured by the model and do not account for every possible source of polling or modelling error.

For any questions about our methodology please contact us at info@convergent-opinion.com